Majority Of Insiders Think Dem House Takeover In 2016 Unlikely
“Currently the Democrats in the Michigan House of Representatives hold 46 seats (with one vacancy). How likely are they to win back the majority in the 2016 elections?”
Twenty-four percent of respondents said it was either “very likely” or “likely” that the Democrats would take over in the House. Another 8 percent said they were unsure, didn’t know or refused to respond.
When split by party, 27 percent of Democrats thought there was a very likely or likely chance and 67 percent said not very likely or no way.
Of Republican respondents, 16 percent thought it likely that Democrats would retake the Michigan House and 78 percent thought it unlikely.
MIRS’ subscribers consist of mostly state government workers, lobbyists, association executives, business professionals, union leaders and other politically interested individuals. All were offered to participate in the non-scientific straw poll of the current political environment in Michigan.
The survey also asked insiders who the next House Republican leader would be. Although the majority of respondents — 36 percent — were unsure, didn’t know or refused to answer, 24 percent picked Rep. Tom LEONARD (R-Dewitt Twp.) as the likely winner.
With 15 percent of respondents, Rep. Rob VERHEULEN (R-Walker) had the next most votes. Rep. Mike WEBBER (R-Rochester Hills) was picked by 13 percent of respondents, and Reps. Laura COX (R-Livonia), Daniela GARCIA (R-Holland) and Gary GLENN (R-Midland) came in at 6 percent, 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
Insiders were also asked how House Minority Leader Tim GRIEMEL (D-Auburn Hills) was doing managing the House Democratic caucus. A plurality of 32 percent said he was doing an average job, while 31 percent said he was doing a good job.
Of the other respondents, 8 percent said he was doing a very good job, 20 percent said he was doing a poor job and 10 percent were unsure, didn’t know or refused to answer.
MIRS insiders were also asked whether the House Republicans’ 600/600 road funding proposal was fiscally responsible.
In total, 68 percent of respondents found the plan “not very responsible” or “very irresponsible,” while 25 percent found it “very responsible” or “responsible.” Eight percent were unsure, didn’t know or refused to answer.
Only 4 percent of Democrats found the plan responsible and almost half of the Republicans, at 48 percent, found it responsible.
When asked whether the Michigan House of Representatives clearly made the case to remove former Reps. Cindy GAMRAT and Todd COURSER — both of whom lost bids to reclaim their seats — 71 percent said they did, 22 percent said they did not and 8 percent were unsure, didn’t know or refused to answer.
Exactly 79 percent of Republicans thought the Legislature clearly made the case to expel the former representatives, while 59 percent of Democrats thought the Legislature clearly made the case.
When asked about their political leanings, 24 percent of respondents self-identified as Democrat, 40 percent self-identified as Republican and 36 percent self-identified as Independent.
Participants in the survey were entered in a drawing for a $10 gift card from Biggby. The winner was Rochelle CASLAVKA.
