Poll: Snyder extends lead over Schauer in Michigan governor’s race
Chad Livengood
Detroit News Lansing Bureau
Lansing— With the 2014 election less than a year away, Gov. Rick Snyder’s lead over Mark Schauer has widened as his likely Democratic challenger struggles to be recognized, according to a new poll released exclusively to The Detroit News.
The Republican governor led 44.5 percent to Schauer’s 31 percent in a statewide poll last week of 600 likely voters commissioned by the bipartisan public relations firm Lambert, Edwards & Associates. In July, the firm’s pollster, Denno Research, found Snyder had a 6 percentage-point lead over Schauer, a former Battle Creek congressman.
The percentage of voters who hold an unfavorable view of the governor dropped from 40 percent in July to 33 percent during a period when Snyder was deeply involved in Detroit’s bankruptcy case and signed legislation expanding the Medicaid health insurance program for the poor. Snyder’s favorable rating inched up 1 percentage point since July to 45 percent, according to the poll.
“Right now, when people talk about Gov. Snyder, they’re talking about Detroit and health care,” pollster Dennis Denno said. “They’re not talking the pension tax, they’re not talking about right to work. And that’s exactly what he wants them to be talking about.”
Snyder’s favorability rating also may be getting a boost from increased optimism in the economy among voters, Denno said. About 56 percent of likely voters said the state’s economy is on the right track, up from 47 percent in July, according to the poll. The poll has a plus-minus margin of error of 4 percentage points.
But the survey also reflected the first-term governor’s struggle to break the 50 percent support mark in a head-to-head match-up against Schauer — a fact Democrats seized on in light of Snyder’s recent statewide television advertising blitz touting his accomplishments.
“After spending $600,000 on political ads, it’s shocking that a universally known incumbent like Rick Snyder can’t get out of the mid-40s in a poll,” Schauer spokesman Zack Pohl said Tuesday.
The percentage of undecided voters also widened in the November survey, increasing to 25 percent from 20 percent in July, leaving both sides a sizable portion of would-be voters to target in the new year as the gubernatorial race begins to heat up.
Like other statewide surveys, the poll shows Schauer remains virtually unknown to most voters, despite serving one term in Congress in south-central Michigan’s 7th District and being a former state senator. Twelve percent of likely voters said they had a favorable view of Schauer — a figure that was unchanged from the July survey.
“Mark Schauer’s going into 2014 with the vast majority of Michigan citizens not knowing who he is, but could still be within striking distance of an incumbent governor,” said T.J. Bucholz, senior director of public affairs at Lambert, Edwards & Associates.
Jeff Lambert, president and managing partner of the firm that bears his name, noted polls in early 2010 showed Snyder was virtually unknown before he went on to win a five-man GOP primary and defeat Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero in the general election.
“While Snyder remains below 50 percent in a head-to-head match-up, a sign he still needs to persuade more voters that he deserves a second term, Schauer is definitely playing from behind and needs to open up the offense if he wants to be in the game,” Lambert said.
Schauer grabbed headlines Monday when he proposed raising Michigan’s minimum wage to $9.25 an hour from $7.40. Snyder has not taken a direct stance on the proposal, but has questioned whether it could cause businesses to shed jobs.
“Congressman Schauer’s official announcement and proposals have reminded voters that he has no serious plan and wants to return Michigan to the failed policies of the past,” Snyder campaign strategist John Yob said Tuesday. “The more they hear from him, the less they like him.”
The poll also reveals nearly one in five Democrats have a favorable view of the Republican governor, who has sought to strengthen his position with moderates and independents after being painted by Democrats as a right-winger for signing the controversial right-to-work legislation last December.
The Lambert, Edwards & Associates-Denno Research telephone poll was conducted Nov. 12-14 and included a sample of 20 percent of cellphone users in an effort to reach more younger voters, Denno said. The July survey had a cellphone sample size of 10 percent.
clivengood@detroitnews.com
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