Peters Widens Lead Over Land In Race For US Senate
Lansing, Michigan (Tuesday, September 16, 2014) – Democratic gubernatorial challenger Mark Schauer has moved within striking distance of Republican Rick Snyder in the race for Michigan Governor, according to the latest public opinion poll conducted by Vanguard Public Affairs and Denno Research.
While Snyder holds a slim lead over Schauer (43.2 percent to 40 percent), Schauer has made significant gains since July, when an identical Vanguard poll showed the Governor up 43 percent to 34.7 percent. The poll now puts Mark Schauer within its margin of error, which means the race for Governor is now a statistical dead heat.
“The Governor has not made significant gains in the polls since July while Mark Schauer has,” said TJ Bucholz, Vanguard Public Affairs President. “Our polling data clearly shows that Schauer is doing better with his base and convincing more independents that he is the right choice for Governor. Certainly, it’s been a great summer for Mark Schauer.”
The poll – taken from September 11 to September 13 – shows that Schauer increased support with his Democrats by five points, while Snyder lost five points with Republicans. But more telling, Snyder has lost four points of support with independents, but Schauer has gained nearly eight points with them.
And the reasons why the gains have been significant for Schauer are even more troubling for the Governor, said Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research. While Snyder’s favorability has remained stable – at 44 percent – less than a majority of independents have a positive opinion of the Governor, and 22 percent of them now say they are unsure.
“When independent voters in Michigan say they are unsure, that never helps the incumbent,” Denno said. “If Mark Schauer can continue to successfully appeal to independents and women, he could snatch the Governor’s seat away from Rick Snyder.”
While 49 percent of males have a favorable opinion of Governor Snyder, only 39 percent of females feel the same way.
Governor Snyder’s overall favorability has remained the same over the summer – at 44 percent – but still below 50 percent, the minimum comfort level for an incumbent, Bucholz said.
In the race to replace Carl Levin in the United States Senate, Democratic Congressman Gary Peters is widening his lead against Republican and former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. The September Vanguard poll puts Peters lead at 7 percent, or 44.7 percent to 37.7 percent. In July, Peters only had a 3 percent lead against Land.
“With the increased volume of political advertising in this race, it appears that Gary Peters has broader appeal for Michigan voters,” Bucholz said. “If Peters can maintain his momentum going into November, Michigan’s US Senate seats will remain in Democratic control.”
Some of Peters’ recent successes can be attributed to his appeal to independent voters, as he now holds a 14 percent lead against Land with them – a significant increase, Denno said.
“More importantly, Gary Peters is beginning to pull away with female voters,” Denno said. “In July, he only led Land by 3 percent with women, but he’s now increased that gap to 8 percent. Again, this is a critical sign that Peters’ appeal with female voters could spell the beginning of the end for the Land campaign.”
In other Michigan political races, Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette holds a commanding lead over Democratic challenger Mark Totten, 40.5 percent to 32.5 percent. After the Governor, at 43 percent, Schuette is the best performing statewide Republican, at 41 percent. There could still be movement in this race, however, as 41 percent of independent voters are still undecided.
Finally, in the race for Michigan Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Ruth Johnson leads Democratic challenger Godfrey Dillard by only 3.6 percent, or 36.3 percent to 32.7 percent, with 31 percent undecided.
“For now, the Secretary of State race is within the margin of error of this poll, which should be a wake-up call for Ruth Johnson, who is running against a fairly unknown challenger in Godfrey Dillard,” Bucholz said. “When you factor in that 31 percent of voters – and 50 percent of independents – are still undecided, this race is too close to call.”
Vanguard Public Affairs surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters, conducted by Denno Research, between September 11 and September 13, with a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent, and the participation was stratified based on census data and past voter behavior. 120 respondents (20%) were from cell phone users, in an attempt to gather younger voters who do not have a land line. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they would vote, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the November 2014 General Election. All numbers are rounded and may exceed 100%.
